Last Sunday Rafael Nadal showed, once again, why he is the king of clay; besting the World’s number one, Roger Federer, for the third year in row on the red dirt at the Roland Garros. But as Federer pushed the final ball of the match long leading him to come one win short-again-he had something to look forward to. Clay season is over, and grass season is beginning. For non-tennis gurus, to envision how dramatic of a change this is, imagine batting against a 12 year pitcher throwing 65 mph. And then replace him with Randy Johnson hurling 98 mph. Sure, grass doesn’t make the ball fly faster through the air, but the way it interacts with it changes its movement dramatically. The ball skids, instead of bouncing, giving the returner less time to hit a 130 mph serve. If the Roland Garros is the tournament for gritty players with heart, Wimbledon is the tournament for players with shot-making talent.
Since this is the week of grass warmup tournaments, I thought I’d be a good time to go over the contenders and their chances.
The Proven Contenders
These are tried and proven players who generally excel on all surfaces and are highly ranked.
Roger Federer (SUI)-World Ranking: 1

If Nadal is the king of clay, then Federer is the absolute tyrant of grass. Seriously, if I’m talking about players who have a chance to win Wimbledon, I could stop after discussing Federer. He is that good! Federer is going for his fifth title on the lawns of the All England Club. Grass suits his all-court style of play well, with his big forehand and his ability to serve and volley well (something he’s been doing a lot more of this year). He doesn’t have the most powerful serve, but is still able to rack up the aces with his excellent placement. However, his first-serve percentage has been low lately which is something he will need to improve on to defend his title. Federer has the ability to either hit winners out of nowhere with his excellent crosscourt backhand and overall amazing forehand or construct points better than anyone else on the tour. Both of these are reason why he is the favorite to win this year.
Rafael Nadal (ESP)-World Ranking: 2
Nadal has worked hard on improving his game for grass recently, however he is still a long shot to have a chance to win. He was last years runner-up, however, he is no sure thing to make it to the final this year. He is benefited by the slowing of the lawns at Wimbledon, however his spin-heavy strokes are still foreign at the All English Club. Topspin doesn’t have the kick on grass that it does on clay, and that is Nadal’s primary weapon. In addition grass doesn’t give him the time to play his excellent defensive, grinding game that he accomplishes on clay. Nadal chances are further hurt by his serve which is a slower-kick serve variety.
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)-World Ranking:3
Davydenko is no force on grass. His best showing at Wimbledon was in 2005 when he lost in the second round. He is small (5-10) and can be overpowered by larger servers. He takes the ball on the rise well and hits very clean ground strokes, however that matters very little against talented shot-makers on grass.
Novak Djokovic (SRB)-World: 4
The 6-2 20 year old really has a chance to make some noise on grass this year. He’s having a breakout year with a masters series win and a Roland Garros semifinal appearance. His 5-2 record at Wimbledon is great for his age, showing he has some talent on grass. He plays a big baseline game, being able to generate great pace off of both wings.
Andy Roddick (US)-World Ranking: 5
Andy Roddick was the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2004 and 2005. He’s always to force to compete with, largely due to his massive serve (clocked at 150+ mph). However his ground game is lacking. His forehand has regressed since he won his 2003 US Open title, and his backhand remains a weakness. Although he has worked hard and improved at the net, he remains no natural from the part of the court.
Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)-World Ranking: 6
Gonzalez has yet to mature into a force to be reckoned with on grass; however this could be the year. He doesn’t move the best on the lawns, however his aggressive playing style benefits from the fast surface. He has what is considered to be one of the largest forehands in the game, coupled with a new slice backhand that should skid low at the All England Club. He has a big serve and decent net play. Gonzalez, with the right draw, has a great chance to best his 2005 results when he appeared in the quarterfinals.
The Talents
These are players who are extremely talented and have the ability to get hot at anytime, but aren’t consistent with their results. The exception is Hewitt who is a proven champion, however he is on the downside of his career.
Andy Murray (GBR)-World Ranking: 9
Britain’s best hope with a solid game and good results last year-upsetting Roddick.
Richard Gasquet (FRA)-World Ranking: 11
One of the most talented shot-makers on the tour, Gasquet struggles with consistency and has trouble winning matches he should. He always remains a threat due to a fantastic backhand and great net play.
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)-World Ranking: 16
Former Wimbledon Champion (2002).
Marat Safin (RUS)-World Ranking: 24
Absolute head-case, who also happens to be the only player talented enough to present a significant threat to Federer. To add to the fact that he breaks more rackets then he hits winners, the big Russian doesn’t move well on grass.
The Dark Horses
These are players who aren’t highly ranked and don’t always excel on all surfaces. However they are always a threat on grass, usually due to strong serve and volley games.
-Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)-(solid all round game)
-Mario Ancic (CRO)-(big serve and volley)
-Max Mirnyi (BLR)-(big serve and volley)
-Tim Henman (GBR)-(good serve and volley game
-Ivo Karlovic (CRO)-(MASSIVE serve)
Thats the rundown for what to expect this grass season. As for my predication, I’ve got Federer and Gonzalez in the final, with Federer taking home his 5th straight title.
Feel free to discuss or throw out more players.